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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/12 10:52

   Wheat, Corn Lower at Midday

   Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 
flat to 3 cents lower.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 240 points. The dollar index 
is 25 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly 
higher with crude up $0.80. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower in quiet pre-report trade as we consolidate 
further in the lower end of the range. The weekly ethanol report showed 
production down 13,000 barrels per day, and stocks down 596,000 barrels taking 
stocks below 20 million barrels. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days, 
with pressure likely at locations with a strong crop coming soon. On the WASDE 
report, trade is looking for yields to edge above 180 BPA with carryouts 
remaining near 2.8 billion bushels. On the September contract, trade continues 
to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.18, with chart support at the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.03.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher ahead of the report with exports and 
conditions likely to continue their tug of war with further sales of 258,000 
metric tons and 120,000 metric tons sold to unknown. Meal is narrowly mixed, 
and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. The real remains in the tighter recent range 
vs. the dollar. Weather looks to continue to be good for most into podfill. The 
WASDE report is expected to show yields moving to above 51 BPA with carryout 
likely to edge higher. The September chart now has resistance at the 20-day at 
8.85 which we are pulling back from, and support the lower Bollinger band at 


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower at midday with trade remaining choppy 
while it holds the lower end of the range and awaits further direction from the 
report and row crops. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more 
Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall along with weaker prices going to 
exporters on the ones that filled today. Kansas City is at a 77-cent discount 
to Chicago with spreads now a dime off the recent highs, while Minneapolis is 
back to a 1 cent premium. The WASDE report will focus more on world numbers 
with increases expected for Russian production tomorrow. Kansas City September 
chart support is the fresh low at $4.09 3/4, with the 20-day back above the 
market as nearby resistance at $4.33 3/4.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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